The latest from the Ukrainian front

The latest from the Ukrainian front

Nuclear War Possible Within Days as Russia-Ukraine situation escalates out of control

Hal Turner,

20 April, 2021

United States Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) has issued a Posture Review pointing out that an adversary may choose to use NUCLEAR WEAPONS first rather than wait until they are losing a war.

Their precise language “Posture Statement Preview: The spectrum of conflict today is neither linear nor predictable. We must account for the possibility of conflict leading to conditions which could very rapidly drive an adversary to consider nuclear use as their least bad option.”

 

When USSTRATCOM puts out something like they just put out, its time to be paying attention.

For reader help, I have added a map showing the likely targets of a massive nuclear attack upon the United States.   If you are in or near any of these places, you need to have plans to evacuate to somewhere else.  The target map, below, can be clicked TWICE to expand it fully (this article continues at length, beneath the map):

 

In the eyes of NATO, any enemy (including Russia) have no chance of winning a war.

It’s just how they see it.

Now, an enemy that is forced to fight NATO, or is willing to attack NATO unprovoked (reasons are irrelevant to the discussion) have a number of options, ranging from good to bad.

But the “good” or the “bad” is subjective, and depends on who is defining what is “good” and “bad.”

For instance, in this case, if Russia launches a surprise massive nuclear attack against U.S. silos, in order to destroy as many nukes as they can, from the point of view of Russia, this is a “good” option, militarily speaking.

In the eyes of U.S. Strategic Command, such an attack would be “bad” . . . for Russia…but the LEAST bad.

The U.S. Strategic Command assumes that Russia will not use nukes in the initial phase of the war, but rather AFTER the war starts, and Russia is losing.

This is the military doctrine of NATO, which assumes (totally wrong) that a nuclear war will start AFTER a conventional war that leads to conditions (read : losing) for one side to use nuclear strikes as a hail Mary.

So, in a sense, if Russia and Ukraine start a war, NATO gets involved (U.S. being the main actor), Russia will not be able to conventionally compete against NATO forces, so Russia might choose to use nukes.

Of course, the US whines and moans “If only Russia will play how U.S. Strategic Command wants…”   Russia already KNOWS that if NATO get involved with the Ukraine situation, they will lose a conventional war.

To assume that Russia will get bogged down in a war against a much superior force, and simply lose troops and assets UNTIL it’s clear that it is losing…THEN using nukes, is the epitome of stupidity.

The moment NATO gets involved in a serious manner (starts mobilizing tens of thousand of troops, hundreds of planes, dozens of ships, etc. etc.), Russia will NOT WAIT until those forces attack, see if they lose, and THEN use nukes.

No.

Russia will use nukes the moment the U.S. and NATO start mobilizing a number of forces and assets that will crush Russia.

U.S. Strategic Command seems unable to understand that Russia will use nukes BEFORE a Russia-NATO war even starts.

Or maybe they do understand, and what they say to us, the plebes, is to make us believe that they don’t.

A few days ago, Russia expelled ten American Diplomatic Personnel and “suggested” that Ambassador John Sullivan leave to, for “consultations” with the US Government.

The ten Diplomats departed Russia, but Sullivan LAST NIGHT issued a public statement saying he REFUSES to leave Russia despite their “suggestion.”  It was publicly reported this way by AXIOS:

 

 

Here we are, eight hours later, the Associated Press is reporting “US Ambassador John Sullivan is returning to the US for consultations . . . but vows to return in a couple weeks.

Russia just showed him what’s what.

MILITARY STATUS

As of this morning, Ukraine has 110,000 troops massed on the borders of Luhansk, Donetsk (Collectively “The Donbas”).  Russia has its 2nd and 3rd Armies massed on the other side of Luhansk and Donetsk, and partly inside Crimea.  In addition, Ukraine has about 450 tanks, about 800 pieces of artillery also massed.

The US and NATO have about 40,000 troops in theater, but in countries nearby Ukraine, NOT in Ukraine itself.  The US began shipping tanks, APC’s, fighter jets and ammunition last week.  That US build-up continues to this minute.

Russia has about 200,000 military troops massed.  This includes 1,300 tanks, 1,300 artillery, 380 Multiple Launch Roicket Systems (MLRS), 300 fighter jets / bombers, 3,700 drones, 280 helicopters, 26 ships (of which 8 are big amphibious ones), 4,000+ Armored Personnel Carriers (APC’s), along over 1,000 km of front. 


HAL TURNER ANALYSIS

The really funny thing is that Russia didn’t start moving ANY TROOPS into the area until Ukraine passed what’s ostensibly a written declaration of war, AND moved 98,000 troops up to the Donbass and Crimea regions.

The most they had done up to that point was deliver several tons of fuel and ammunition to the local defense forces in Luhanks and Donetsk so that they could at least fight back if Ukraine tried something.

What’s not being reported in any media except here, and not being mentioned by __any__ political representatives anywhere, is that Ukraine itself moved up a substantial percentage of it’s entire army and called up reservists which is what started this whole massing-of-troops.

Somehow that’s just lost in the conversation.

The 150k or so Russian troops scattered around the region are barely numerically superior to what Ukraine has moved to the front lines.

We’re seeing more news about additional units the Ukrainians are moving up, but for the most part the people in power have done a phenomenal job of keeping people from realizing that Ukraine is very much the aggressor and what we’re seeing from the Russians up until very recently is just the bare minimum you’d want to defensively respond with.

The Russians outright can not afford to lose Crimea, the Kerch strait bridge, their naval port, or the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany.  These things represent untold tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars of Russian capital outlay.

Russia is, in a very real way, protecting their investments, to say nothing of the ethnic Russians who Ukraine wants to genocide!

Should Russia lose the Crimea, it’s naval base, the bridge, and the nord stream 2 pipeline, it would be an economic shock severe enough to unwind the entire Russian economy at this point.

This isn’t about national pride or imperialism for the Russians, it’s quite literally a fight for national survival.

As someone who has watched this conflict since it’s beginning during the Euromaidan stuff, I have gained a respect for Russian President Putin and the key players like General Shogui and Foregin Minister Lavrov who have shown restraint, humanitarian concern, and wisdom in their handling of this entire crisis.

The reality of what they have done and said so far is in extremely stark contrast to how they are portrayed in western media to a point that makes me feel quite sick.

It’s uncomfortable knowing that my nation is on the wrong side of all this, and that if my nation’s leaders get their way MILLIONS WILL SUFFER.

It’s sobering to realize that things have gone this far astray.

I sincerely hope that President Putin is even one tenth the leader I believe him to be because in a very real way his handling if this situation represents the only hope for millions not to be plunged into unending death and misery.

Of course, NATO conventional superiority is well documented, and many, many people rely on that assessment to think Russia would automatically lose any conventional war.  

I, however, cannot escape the reality that the NATO and the US Military have been transgender fortified with LGBTQ+ and Social Justice Warriors (SJW) to go “where no man has gone before. “

The US has never had such a fierce rainbow fighting force; so Russia should back the fuck down or face Drag Queen hour in their libraries for their children. 

OH, and during the fight, every time an LGBTQ+ or SJW is injured or killed, the US can complain to the UN for discrimination and the UN will impose penalties on the enemy (usual stuff, sanctions, etc.)

Russia knows these things and rightfully has begun MOCKING us.   Margarita Simonyan, the head of Russian Television went so far as to say

” . . . the West’s behavior on sanctions – led by America “like some kind of a raging Santa Claus on antidepressants or opiates” – acted as an incitement to the Kremlin to gain full control of the Russian-speaking Donbass in eastern Ukraine.”

They view us as a raging Santa Claus!  

My assessment:  That’s not far from the truth anymore!

So perhaps this won’t go nuclear . . .  but I expect it will – and fast.   

I have told my radio audience that I believe this war will erupt “on or before May 2.”   I’ve said it repeatedly and publicly.  Given the current deterioration in the situation, I would now not be surprised if this breaks out . . .  within the next 72 hours.

I hope all of you have prepared as best you can with emergency food, water, medicines, a way to generate emergency electric, fuel for the generator and for your vehicles, portable radio with extra batteries, flashlights with extra batteries, fire extinguishers and first aid kits.

If this takes place, there  will NOT be any help coming for you or your family.   Everyone will literally be on their own.

The Russians have spent the past twenty years developing and building nuclear war bunkers for their population.  In those bunkers are food, water, medicines, fuel, machine tools, vehicles.  All the things they need to get-by and recover.   

We in the USA . . .  have none of those things.

Put simply, Russians survive, Americans die.

Germany Will **NOT** Abandon Nord Stream 2 Natural Gas Pipeline!

Hal Turner,

20 April, 2021

 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that Berlin continues to support the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and intends to develop trade relations with Russia.

This position was announced by the German Chancellor during the online meeting of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE).

Merkel stressed that the controversy surrounding the implementation of the gas pipeline project is part of a wider disagreement among European countries on trade and contacts with Moscow, and Berlin always supports the idea of ​​dialogue.

In addition, according to the German leader, discussions around the construction of the gas pipeline are also part of the political struggle.

“I would like to point out that the gas (of the current) Nord Stream 1 is no worse than the gas that goes in transit through Ukraine, or gas that is supplied from Russia through Turkey,” Merkel said.

She also recalled the common position of the members of the European Union, which is expressed in the updated gas directive, which entered into force in May 2019.The conditions of this document enable the European country on whose territory the outlet of the offshore gas pipeline is located to determine for itself whether the provisions apply to this gas pipeline. 

Last week, the head of the State Duma Committee on Energy, coordinator of the parliamentary group for relations with the German Bundestag Pavel Zavalny announced the approximate deadlines for the completion of the construction of Nord Stream 2. According to him, the gas pipeline may be ready by the end of this summer.

The deafening sound of silence in the West (OPEN THREAD #15)

Vineyard ot the Saker,

20 April, 2021

The story about the attempt to murder Lukashenko in much the same manner as Anwar Sadat (during a military parade) broke over the week-end, but even I was too tired to report it.  But on Monday I wrote a reasonably detailed column about it under the title “Did the US just try to murder Lukashenko“.  Much more relevantly, the Kremlin fully confirmed the story and the Russian media discussed it at length.  It also became known that Putin and Biden discussed this topic during their telephone call (ironic, no? Biden called Putin a ‘killer’ while the self same “Biden” tried to kill a foreign head of state).  What we are talking about here is both an act of international terrorism and a de facto act of war.

I was pretty sure that by today, Tuesday, the western media would be busy ridiculing and dismissing it all as “Russian disinformation” but, instead, there is nothing, not a word.  The “united West” simply totally ignored this information.

Even more puzzling is the total silence in the “alternative” free media and the blogosphere…

Then there is the truly comical Czech fairy tale about Petrov and Boshirov (the folks the Brits accused of poisoning Skripal) blowing up a weapons depot in 2014 (!).

Again, deafening silence.

But the upcoming death of Navalnyi is the one Russia-related topic the western media seems to be interested in.

Even RT and Sputnik seemed to be “covering” this very minimally and very reluctantly (these two have become so bad, I rarely even bother reading them, but that is another story).

My request today is this: if you do come across any reports discussing either the failed coup in Belarus or the Czech mental collapse, please post the links in the open thread below.  Maybe I missed all the “good” coverage the “free media” of the “allied western democracies” provided?

Finally, just to show you how different the mood is in Russia, check out this (wholly unscientific) readers survey by the Russian website Vzgliad (which I would describe as moderately patriotic, pretty close to the Russian mainstream):

Translation:

Question: Is it possible in the future to build friendly and partnership relations between Russia and the United States?

Answers:

Yes, in the short term: 1.05%
Yes, in the medium term: 4.57%
Yes, in the long run: 29.15%
no never: 65.24%

Which, in plain English, means that the Russians have basically given up on the US in total disgust.

They have also finally convinced US Ambassador to “voluntarily” leave Russia (he was apparently waiting to be expelled).

But, of course, the narcissistic West will never admit that it mostly elicits disgust and contempt from the vodka-guzzling Russian savages.  All of the above will be dismissed as yet more “Russian disinformation” and “Kremlin propaganda”.

And, in the meantime, the WP is urging Biden to meet with Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.  If ignorance is truly bliss, then these two will be in heaven together.

The Saker

PS: I forgot to add that the Czech version says that the Russians blew up that weapons depot because this was the depot from which the Czechs were sending weapons to both the Urkonazi regime in Kiev and to the “good terrorists” in Syria.  Interesting, no?  Is that not evidence that both the US and NATO were, in fact, arming both the Nazis in the Ukraine and the Takfiris in Syria? As I have said it many times, the united West will ally itself to even the Devil if that is against Russia.  This is the story of 1000 years of hatred for everything Russian and/or Orthodox.

EU Walks Back Embarrassing Claim Of 150,000 Russian Troops Near Ukraine Border

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The European Union had to correct a claim made by its foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, concerning Russian troops near the Ukrainian border. Borrell told reporters on Monday that there were “over 150,000” Russian troops near the border. The number was corrected in a transcript of his briefing on the EU’s website to “over 100,000.”

Despite the change, it’s still unclear how the EU determined that there are over 100,000 Russian troops near the border. Russia has announced the deployment of additional forces near Ukraine in recent weeks, but nothing has indicated it sent over 100,000 troops to the region. Last week, a spokesperson for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed there were 80,000 troops stationed along the border of Ukraine, with 40,000 of them in Crimea.

The fact that Russia has troops in Crimea is no surprise. Moscow had a military base in the peninsula even before Crimea joined the Russian Federation in 2014. An alarmist report from the Daily Mail published satellite images that it claims show a Russian military build-up at a base in Crimea.

But the base is located in southern Crimea, nowhere near the conflict zone in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Demonstrating that the Daily Mail report lacks any credibility, it repeats Borrell’s original claim that 150,000 Russian troops have amassed as fact.

When asked about Borrel’s comments, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the situation is “concerning” to the US. “What I can tell you is, in general, we have continued to see this build-up increase. And again, that is concerning to us,” he said.

While Kirby didn’t offer any numbers, he claimed the Russian troop deployment is “certainly bigger” than the 2014 deployment Kirby said resulted in a “violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Pentagon Now Says Russian Troop Build-Up Near Ukraine “Bigger” Than In 2014

On Monday Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby for the first time gave a US military assessment of Russia’s troop build-up along Ukraine’s eastern border that goes significantly beyond prior statements. 

Kirby said of the Russian military build-up that “it is certainly bigger than the one in 2014,” however without providing a specific number. Russia insists the buildup is for training, but it is “not clear to us” that this is the only purpose, he added according to Politico’s Lara Seligman. Kirby described that “over the past couple of weeks, officials have continued to see an increase in Russia’s buildup of troops on the border with Ukraine,” Politico’s Pentagon correspondent added. 

Ukrainian government officials late last month had been the first to accuse the Kremlin of destabilizing and saber-rattling with a major troop deployment to Crimea and near the border with war-torn Donbass, setting off a renewed diplomatic crisis between Moscow and the West.

Kiev ultimately charged that Russia was preparing for an “offensive” into Ukraine’s sovereign territory in support of pro-Russian separatists fighting Ukraine’s military in the country’s east. While the conflict had smoldered since the height of fighting in 2014 and 2015, which has taken over 13,000 lives over a half-decade, late last month four Ukrainian soldiers were reported killed in shelling by separatists. 

The Economist has recently voiced the biggest concern out of Western allies as follows: “The last time that Russia gathered so many troops on Ukraine’s borders, it went on to invade the country and annex Crimea.”

The Pentagon’s new assessment that the Russian troop build-up goes beyond 2014 levels comes a week after Secretary of State Antony Blinken first said “We’re now seeing the largest concentration of Russian forces on Ukraine’s borders since 2014.” He had issued the words from NATO’s headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, saying further “That is a deep concern not only to Ukraine, but to the United States” – comments backed by NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg.

Meanwhile also on Monday the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell issued an astoundingly high estimate and accusation of Russian troop numbers in the area:

Initially, Borrell told reporters that “there’s more than 150,000 Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian borders and in Crimea,” and doubled down on the figure later before his services had to correct it in the transcript, saying the real figure was over 100,000.

Nevertheless, Borrell said that “the risk of further escalation — it’s evident.”

He said that a “spark” could set off major war at any time. “It is the highest military deployment of the Russian army on the Ukrainian borders ever. It’s clear that it’s a matter of concern when you deploy a lot of troops,” Borrell said. “Well, a spark can jump here or there.”

Josep Borrell

Ukrainian leaders have been urging Western countries to make clear to Russia that it will pay a price for its “aggression” – while President Volodymyr Zelensky has lobbied for a ‘fast-tracking’ into NATO membership, considered a Russian ‘red line’. 

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