CHINA CANNOT CONTAIN THE WUHAN CORONAVIRUS
Full Spectrum Survival
transmission fueling outbreak: The new analysis on 2019-nCoV
transmissibility was released today by a group based at Imperial
College London that made two earlier projections on the number of
symptomatic illnesses in Wuhan.
report focuses on transmissibility. They estimate that the
reproduction number (R0), the average number of illnesses spread by
one infected person, is 2.6 (range, 1.5 to 3.5). Also, the experts
said transmission patterns are probably variable, with some people
infecting several others, while some don’t.
steps in China would need to block 60% of transmission to control the
outbreak, the researchers projected. “It is unclear at the
current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China,”
they wrote, emphasizing that key questions remain, such as how well
residents adopt recommended risk-reduction steps, how severe the
disease is, and how readily people with mild disease can pass the
virus to others.
urged health officials, if possible, to cast a wide net for isolating
and testing suspected cases that involve only mild to moderate
third study, meanwhile, estimates that 14% of people hospitalized
with a 2019-nCoV infection will die. Like SARS (severe acute
respiratory syndrome), which spread around the globe in 2003,
eventually infecting more than 8,000 people, most patients infected
with 2019-nCoV were previously healthy, with only 13 (32%) having
underlying conditions like diabetes, high blood pressure, or heart
disease. Also, 2019-nCoV patients had a broad range of symptoms:
pneumonia (41, 100%), fever (40, 98%), cough (32, 76%), and fatigue
(18, 44%). Over half of patients also experienced shortness of breath
(22, 55%), but headache (3, 8%) and diarrhea (1, 3%) were uncommon.