After writing my piece, Sunday Musings I have been received more emails from my on-line friend which doubles down on his previous contentions. Last night he sent me this email implying that there might be a Kremlin coup coming.
As I said yesterday, I do not do news by Twitter, especially from American pro-Ukrainian sources.
Quite how my friend determines what is reliable information and what is not and what is coming next. He is saying he knows better than military. experts, generals. Does he speak Russian (I do)?
What qualifies him to know exactly what is happening when the truth in the “fog of war” is so hard to get to?!
I do not set myself up as an expert as I said yesterday. I am a tolerant person and I appreciate that people share sources with me.
However, when they start TELLING me what I ought to believe they elicit pushback from me and finally my ire. I have decided to follow this up and find items from Russian media which covers this.
I, at least have the skills to go to these sites and determine what it is all about even if these days I use the machine translation, which is getting better. Russians are a fairly rumbunctuous lot, who fight a lot amongst themselves, so if there was any sense of a “coup” I would know from Telegram.
The first two items are from Kommersant, a major Russian newspaper
Kadyrov blamed Colonel General Lapin for the loss of Krasny Liman
The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, accused Colonel-General Alexander Lapin of forcing Russian troops to leave Krasny Liman. Mr. Kadyrov published his message with accusations on Telegram almost immediately after the Russian Ministry of Defense officially announced the abandonment of Krasny Liman.
According to the head of Chechnya, Alexander Lapin commanded the defense of the Krasnoliman sector of the front. Ramzan Kadyrov claims that the Colonel-General “put up mobilized fighters from the LPR and other units on all frontiers of the Liman direction, but did not provide them with the necessary communications, interaction and the supply of ammunition.”
“Two weeks ago, Major General Commander of the Akhmat Special Forces, my dear brother Apty Alaudinov, personally reported to me that our fighters could become an easy target. In turn, I informed Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, about the danger. But the general assured me that he had no doubts about Lapin’s leadership talent and did not believe that a retreat was possible in Krasny Liman and its environs,” wrote Ramzan Kadyrov.
According to him, a week ago, Alexander Lapin moved his headquarters to Starobelsk, while he left for Luhansk. “How can you quickly manage units, being 150 km away from them? Due to the lack of elementary military logistics, today we have left several settlements and a large piece of territory,” he added.
Earlier today, on October 1, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the troops were withdrawn from Krasny Liman “to more advantageous lines.” As explained in the department, the decision was made due to the creation of a threat of encirclement. We will remind, on the eve of the head of the DPR Denis Pushilin said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine took the Russian army in a semi-circle in Krasny Liman.
In June, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Colonel-General Alexander Lapin was in command of formations and military units of the Center troops. Mr. Lapin has been Commander of the Central Military District since November 22, 2017. In July, Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded him the title of Hero of Russia
Yevgeny Prigozhin supported Ramzan Kadyrov’s statement on Krasny Liman
Businessman and founder of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin supported the statement of the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov on the situation in Krasny Liman. “Kadyrov’s expressive statement, of course, is not at all in my style. But I can say: “Ramzan, handsome, burn.” All these thugs with guns barefoot to the front,” such a comment on behalf of Yevgeny Prigozhin was posted on VKontakte by the press service of his Concord company.
Earlier, Ramzan Kadyrov harshly criticized the commander of the Central Military District (TsVO, headquarters in Yekaterinburg), Colonel General Alexander Lapin, who led the defense in the Liman direction. He believes that General Lapin should be responsible for the loss of Krasny Liman. Ramzan Kadyrov believes that General Lapin should be demoted to a private, deprived of awards, he himself would send the head of the Central Military District “with a machine gun in his hands to the front line to wash away his shame with blood.” According to Mr. Kadyrov, he is offended that Alexander Lapin is “covered up by the leaders of the General Staff.”
On October 1, the Ministry of Defense reported that the allied troops were withdrawn from Krasny Liman to more advantageous lines due to the creation of a threat of encirclement. The day before, the head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin , stated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had taken the Russian army into a “semi-circle” in Krasny Liman.
This is from another mainstream outlet, Komsomolskaya Pravda
The head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Denis Pushilin, said that the armed forces of Ukraine took the city of Krasny Liman in a semicircle. According to him, Russia and the DPR do not fully control Yampol and Drobyshevo. The Russian and Ukrainian sides are pulling up reserves to Krasny Liman, he added.
“At the moment, Krasny Liman is in a semicircle, the road from Svatovo is under our control, but periodically under fire. Permanent DRG groups (sabotage and reconnaissance group . – “Kommersant” ). Yampol and Drobyshevo are not fully controlled by us. Our guys are fighting, we are pulling up reserves, we must survive, but the enemy also threw serious forces, ”Denis Pushilin wrote in his Telegram channel .
The day before, Denis Pushilin said that a turning point in the Krasny Liman region is possible soon. He said that the situation in Krasny Liman is the most difficult.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the capture of Krasny Liman on May 28. On September 10, the Ministry of Defense announced an “operation to curtail” troops in the Balakleya and Izyum regions of the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. After the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkov direction, the first reports of new battles for Krasny Liman began to appear.
Has a person been appointed responsible for the lost Liman?
The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, burst into an angry post on his Telegram channel. He suggested that those responsible for the retreat be demoted and “with a machine gun in their hands be sent to the front line to wash away the shame with blood”
За потерянный Лиман уже назначили ответственного?
Глава Чечни Рамзан Кадыров разразился гневным постом у себя в телеграм-канале. Он предложил виновных в отступлении разжаловать и «с автоматом в руках отправить на передовую смывать позор кровью»
After the Russian troops left Krasny Liman, the network was broken by a statement by Ramzan Kadyrov. He accused Oleksandr Lapin, who commands troops in Kharkiv and in the north of Luhansk region, that it was because of his actions that an important settlement was lost.
“… The Colonel General deployed mobilized fighters from the LPR and other units at all lines of the Limansk direction, but did not provide them with the necessary communication, interaction and the supply of ammunition. Two weeks ago, Major General Commander of the special forces “Akhmat”, my dear BROTHER Apty Alaudinov, personally reported to me that our fighters could become an easy target. The General Staff assured me that they had no doubts about Lapin’s leadership talent and did not believe that a retreat was possible in Krasny Liman and its environs.
A week later, Lapin moves his headquarters to Starobelsk, a hundred kilometers from his subordinates, while he himself sits in Lugansk. How can you quickly manage units, being 150 km away from them? Due to the lack of elementary military logistics, today we have left several settlements and a large piece of territory.
… If it were my will, I would demote Lapin to the rank of private, deprive him of his awards and, with a machine gun in his hands, send him to the front line to wash away his shame with blood.
… I don’t know what they report to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, but in my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken, up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons. It is not necessary to take every decision with an eye on the Western American community – it has already said so and done a lot against us.
Yesterday there was a parade in Izyum, today there is a flag in Liman, and what tomorrow?” Kadyrov wrote.
The head of Chechnya was also supported by a well-known businessman, twice a hero of Russia, the founder of Wagner PMC Evgeny Prigozhin:
“Kadyrov’s expressive statement, of course, is not at all in my style. But I can say: “Ramzan, handsome, burn.” All these thugs – with machine guns barefoot to the front, ”it is written in one of the telegram channels on his behalf.
At the same time, Prigozhin noted that this is not a criticism of the Ministry of Defense, “but a manifestation of love and support.”
A number of bloggers and public figures spoke in defense of General Lapin. In particular, Igor Strelkov said that “Lapin was not initially responsible for the defense of Liman – his units were sent to help from another sector of the front and, moreover, they were sent too late,” and if someone is to blame, then it’s definitely not him first turn.
RIA Novosti military correspondent Alexander Kharchenko wrote on his Telegram channel that he knows the general from Syria. And in Donbass, we have been working with his grouping of troops of the Central Military District (TsVO) since June.
“We lived on the front lines and saw everything with our own eyes. Lisichansk fell thanks to the efforts of the Central Military District. Initially, it was supposed to storm it head-on, but General Lapin insisted on a systematic encirclement. It was thanks to Lapin, according to Kharchenko, that street fighting in Lisichansk was avoided.
“There may be claims against Lapin, but he certainly cannot be reproached for cowardice. Alexander Pavlovich always led the troops, in the immediate vicinity of the line of contact. He arrived in Belogovka by car with a driver and a security guard! All! At the same time, he drove past a flaming MTLB, which was blown up by Ukrainian saboteurs. A day later, our headquarters dismantled a Ukrainian tank.
When the enemy began to cross the Oskol in small groups, General Lapin led a special forces detachment and went to catch DRGs (saboteurs, – ed.). So the point is not at all the cowardice and incompetence of an individual general. The problem is in communication and control systems. And I’m afraid that even Lapin’s strength was not enough here, even though he tried to rectify the situation.”
In addition, Kharchenko noted that it was Lapin who said that mobilization was necessary back in June:
“Even then there weren’t enough people. Some battalions had 30 people left, but these guys went ahead and won contrary to military science.
Lapin is not the culprit of the fact that he had to leave Krasny Liman, the military commissar concludes, but he can be “appointed as extreme for the miscalculations of a wide range of officials.”
Finally, from the shadowy Igor “Strelkov” (Shooter) who was prominent in the Donbas in 2014, was eased out and now comments from the side. He is not a player.
Igor Strelkov: So, what is happening under the Estuary?
Игорь Стрелков: Итак, что происходит под Лиманом?
Andrey Morozov: As for future news, then … the only comment I will have on the screaming headlines of the near-military telegram channels in the coming days is short and sad.
This, of course, is a betrayal. This level of incompetence simply does not exist.
Based on the totality of indirect data, we can say that Liman is surrounded. It is not clear yet – complete encirclement or operational, but – at least – all roads to the city are either intercepted by the enemy, or are under direct fire.
Frankly speaking, considering from the outside the (forced) defensive operation of our troops in the Liman-Yampol-Drobyshevo area, I initially assumed that it was of a “deterrent” nature. That is – the enemy – advancing in the SECONDARY DIRECTION (for us) and spending reserves here to achieve a more “media” than decisive military result – was initially held back by not the most combat-ready units (BARS without heavy weapons) with the sole purpose of giving him the indicated reserves to spend and gain time, during which the main forces of the 20th Combined Arms Army will be able to recover from a heavy defeat near Balakliya-Kupyansk-Izyum, replenish with mobilized and strengthen on new lines east of Liman.
I also assumed that the enemy was conducting an “auxiliary” (or generally diverting) offensive near Liman, masking their intended main attack on the Zaporozhye front, and also trying to divert our reserves from there. Actually, even now I consider this danger quite probable, because, unlike the Liman region, an enemy breakthrough somewhere under the Pologi or south of Ugledar threatens to collapse the front and threaten the encirclement of our entire Kherson group, the enemy’s exit to the Crimean Isthmus and – in as a result – to the strategic defeat of the RF Armed Forces with unpredictable overall consequences.
Why did I think and still think that it is very difficult for us to firmly hold the Liman area, and its surrender is not critical? Because:
– in the conditions of the continued general superiority of the enemy in manpower by 3-4 times – his offensive combat operations in a wooded and rugged terrain a priori can and will be successful. No superiority in artillery and aviation (not so significant) to fend off the constant pressure of enemy infantry groups with a lack of our own infantry is completely impossible under such conditions;
– The capture of the Liman region (only Liman – this is not about Svatov, for example) – does not give the enemy further strategic development. Maximum – operational-tactical, nothing more.
Under such conditions, our troops could be tasked with holding the area for the longest possible time and inflicting maximum losses on the enemy, but not at all with a tough defense.
From here – having received information about the abandonment of Drobyshevo and Yampol by our units – I assumed that our troops were withdrawn from the resulting “bag” in order to further organized evacuation of the Liman itself. I would have done so.
And now let’s move on to what we currently have in reality: but we have at least an operational (or even complete – I have no exact data) ENVIRONMENT. Which they are urgently trying to break through from the outside. (And the enemy – one must think – also does not sit idly by and hits the deblocking forces from all available long-range weapons. With corresponding losses).
So, why the withdrawal from Liman was not secured in advance by bringing into the “corridor” forces sufficient to hold it and cover the withdrawal – I have no answer to this. Therefore, completely reject the thesis SW. Andrey “Murza” about betrayal – I can’t. But still, with a greater degree of probability, I assume IMPRESSABLE CRETINISM AND UNPROFESSIONALISM OF COMMAND. Unrecoverable in conditions when no one is responsible for all the numerous and regularly repeated failures, except for frank “switchmen”.
I sincerely hope that our encircled units in Liman (there are, in general, few of them, both in number and in numbers) will be quickly released and successfully withdrawn. Otherwise, a relatively insignificant operational-tactical defeat will turn into a colossal moral blow to our army and, conversely, into a huge moral success for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Quote: Greater than Edda
I agree with Igor Ivanovich in his assessment, I would only like to clarify that the 20th OA near Izyum did not suffer a heavy defeat. She kept her positions quite calmly and retreated after I won’t say who ran at a speed close to supersonic. The “Twenty” withdrew, took up lines and held the enemy. We will see in the very near future how the command took advantage of the time that the Bars, Lugansk and Twenty gave him.