Imperial College of London – ONLY COMPLETE SHUT DOWN for 18 Months can stop virus

Imperial College of London – ONLY COMPLETE SHUT DOWN for 18 Months can stop virus

Very, very important information!


Epidemic
Computer Models 



Show ONLY COMPLETE 



SHUT DOWN for 18 Months 

Can stop
Virus

HalTurner,

20
March, 2020

A
Report by the Imperial College of London says millions of us will die
and that health systems will be overwhelmed by Coronavirus, WITHIN 3
MONTHS. To mitigate the disaster of this outbreak, new measures need
to go into place immediately.  18 Months SHUTDOWN!


It’s
terrifying. I’ll offer a summary.


The
Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from
China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a
simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing — if we
treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus
take its course? Here’s what would happen:


80%
of Americans would get the disease.


0.9%
of them would die.


Between
4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2
million Americans would die from the virus itself.


It
gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on
ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50%
live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would
be 
30
times the number available
 in
the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.


So
the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to
 4
million Americans — in a span of 3 months
.
 8-15%
of all Americans over 70 would die.


How
many is 4 million people? It’s more Americans than have died all at
once from anything, ever. It’s the population of Los Angeles. It’s
4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War…on both
sides combined. 


Americans
make up 4.4% of the world’s population. If we extrapolate these
numbers to the rest of the world (warning: Margin of Error is high
here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6
months.  1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War
II.


Now,
of course countries won’t stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial
College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a “mitigation”
strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of
those cases quarantined.


All
Americans over 70 social distancing.


This
mitigation strategy is what you’ve seen a lot of people talking
about when they say we should “flatten the curve”: try to slow
the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it,
to avoid overwhelming hospitals. It does flatten the curve — but
not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half,
but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need
for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it 
still
exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times.


That
leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million
deaths.


The
population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. Globally, 45 million people
die: 3/4 of World War II. That’s what happens if we rely on
mitigation & common sense.


Finally,
the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming
suppression” strategy:
isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social
distancing 
for
the whole population
,
all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and
universities close.


Suppression
works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few
thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don’t exceed the number
of available ventilators.


The
nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear.


But
here’s the catch: 
if
we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the
entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of
Americans in a few months, the same as before.


After
the 1st suppression period ends 
in
July,
 we
could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more
months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an
outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by
city could do a bit better.


But
we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire
population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too
deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means
millions of Americans are dying. It simply can’t be allowed to
happen.


How
quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research
teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them
(with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without
waiting for animal testing.


That’s
an extreme measure, but necessary.


Now,
though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make
sure the vaccine is safe. This part can’t be rushed: if you’re
going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the
vaccine itself won’t kill them. It probably won’t, but you have
to be sure.


Assuming
the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months
to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this
reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18
months until the vaccine is available.


During
those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very
scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways.
And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we’re doing
all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain
low.


It’s
easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle
of a war. It’s very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that
looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working.


But
that’s exactly what we’re going to have to do according to the
Imperial College of London.

*****
BULLETIN *****


I
received a phone call after my radio show tonight telling me SUNDAY
is “the big day.”  According to this source, SUNDAY
will be when the government announces “something huge.” 
 Perhaps a full lockdown of the United States . . . 
effective Monday.  No travel without special permits to allow
it.   
Have
NOT been able to confirm this with anyone yet
,
just passing it along because if it is true, time is short and folks
may need final “preps.”


MORE: 


I
also received a second call from another source, reminding me that
“Q” told us quite awhile ago  
“3-20-20 
Prepare for the storm”
 and
several persons have pointed out to me over the past couple weeks
that the number of sealed federal indictments seems to miraculously
coincide with areas of  this country going on lockdown. 


Not
sure if that means the swamp is about to get drained, but having
people locked safely at home might be a very opportune time to make
the mass arrests of the child-rapists, their ring leaders and the
filthy creatures of “The Swamp.”   Today being
3-20-20, I remind folks to 
Prepare
for the storm!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-self-isolation-cases-social-distancing-advice-boris-johnson-a9413836.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1584707999

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