Jennifer Francis’s theory on the Polar Vortex is ….a theory

Jennifer Francis’s theory on the Polar Vortex is ….a theory

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For almost as long as I have been doing this blog I have taken for granted the work of Jennifer Francis which forms an important lynchpin in the work of Guy McPherson and especially of Paul Beckwith.

It remained the sole remaining bone of contention with Dane Wigington.

After finding this news on the Polr Vortex I stumbled upon the article below which reminded me that it is not a religious article of faith but a theory that still needs to be proved.

iberia Records Minus-80 Degrees As Talk Of Polar Vortex Grows

 

Several weeks after the Christmas Arctic blast, much of the US and Europe have enjoyed record warmth. Recall on Dec. 27, we noted the cold air mass from Siberia that spread across the continental US would dissipate into the new year. So far, this is correct, as three weeks of above-average weather has staved off an energy crisis in the Northern Hemisphere. But just north, in Siberia, temperatures are sinking to near-record lows. And it could only be a matter of time before the giant cold air mass swirling in the North Pole becomes unstable, breaks down, and begins pouring into the US and Europe. 

Global warming alarmists who called for an imminent climate disaster last summer are scratching their heads as the rural northern Siberian town of Zhilinda just recorded temperatures of minus-79.8 degrees, according to climatologist Maximiliano Herrera, who tracks extreme temperatures across the globe.

Herrera told The Washington Post that Zhilinda was just a few degrees off from breaking its record low of minus-82.3 degrees. The all-time low for the Northern Hemisphere was set in Russia in 1933 at minus-89.9 degrees.

Earlier this week, Arcfield Weather’s Paul Dorian said winter isn’t over and called for a significant change in North American weather “in about ten days or so.” Like anything, nothing is ever constant, and the warm spell could give way to colder temps later this month or early February. 

“Sometimes, exceptionally cold air that builds over Siberia spills into the eastern United States,” WaPo explained, adding:

“Although the eastern United States has had very mild weather since that late December cold blast, there is the potential for a significant pattern change toward the end of January.”

For a polar vortex to flow into the US or Europe, there first needs warming in the Arctic stratosphere that pushes cold air lower. As explained by Michigan Weather Forecast:

This begins with the warming in the Arctic stratosphere which pushes the cold air south (simply put). The GFS, GEFS, ECMWS, and GEM models are displaying similar model runs. This is more of a heads-up than anything else. Do with it as you will, it is my humble opinion that winter in the sense of cold and snow isn’t over yet. We will see if the CPC comes on board with this.

And on Twitter, many folks are posting models predicting winter isn’t over and all that cold air trapped in the Arctic could pour into Europe and the US in the coming weeks. 

And maybe there’s some validity in the models above as the Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day temperature outlook has increasingly shown over the last week of colder weather slated for the end of the month. 

So if the models are correct. Winter was just delayed. 

Journal Nature Refutes PIK’s Fantasy-Rich Science That A Warmer Arctic Causes Extreme Cold Snaps

The polar vortex theory takes a beating: The claim a warm Arctic is behind the brutally cold winter conditions at the mid latitudes is shown by a Nature study to be scientifically baseless. 

Hat-tip: Die kalte Sonne.

Now that Europe and North America are getting blasted by unusually severe winter weather, which climate alarmists predicted 20 years ago would be a thing of the past, the alarmists are desperate to find an explanation to escape embarrassment.

PIK science suggests warmth begets cold

They’ve come up with the polar vortex explanation: the bitter cold we are now experiencing at the middle latitudes is in fact due to the warmer Arctic, they say. And this wreaks havoc on the jet stream which in turn results in cold Arctic blasts dipping deep into the middle latitudes. Yes, cold winters are in fact exactly what we should expect in a rapidly warming world!

Levermann and Rahmstorf

For example the two media front men Anders Levermann and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Climate Institute (PIK) have been telling this to the ever gullible German media outlets, like Bild and Spiegel. Yet, many suspect it’s scientific fraud designed to fool the public and to hide the fact that their global warming predictions are in reality glaring failures.

Journal Nature refutes fantasy-rich PIK explanation

For example a recent paper appearing in Nature titled “Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming“, authored by Blackport et al, refutes this highly fantasy-rich hypothesis pitched by the two PIK scientists.

The Nature article writes:

Jennifer Francis, whose seminal work proposed that Arctic warming was leading to a wavier jet stream, predicted in 2014 that “within a few years, as Arctic amplification continues, we will have enough data to know whether or not we’re right”6.

So, six years on, what has changed? Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss have indeed continued (Fig. 1). But predictions of a more negative Arctic Oscillation, wavier jet stream, colder winters in mid-latitudes or, more specifically, in Eurasia, and more frequent and/or widespread cold extremes have not become reality (Fig. 1).

Cold waves have been decreasing

Other experts have also noticed what PIK is doing here. Dr. Roy Spencer wrote at his blog in 2019 that U.S. cold waves have been decreasing, thus contradicting the PIK:

Source: Dr. Roy Spencer.

“The trend is markedly downward in the most recent 40 years (since 1979) which is the earliest we have reliable measurements of Arctic sea ice from satellite microwave radiometers (my specialty),” Spencer noted.

“Made to fit where they don’t fit”

Also on Rahmstorf’s claim Arctic warmth begets extreme cold, Swiss veteran meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann tweeted directly:

You never know which is more terrible and unscrupulous, all the right-wing nuts who see a winter weather situation as an argument against the climate crisis or the desperately unscientific @rahmstorf who now also attributes an ordinary winter weather situation to climate change,”

On the Rahmstorf’s approach, Kachelmann adds:

No, there’s hardly any science in the story.

Things are being made to fit where they don’t fit. As always.”

Der Spiegel’s “rubbish”

Unfortunately, the polar vortex tale has been effective at duping the gullible media journalists, like those at Der Spiegel. They too are trying to hide their embarrassment of having been suckered by the manmade global warming catastrophe hoax over the past 3 decades. Kachelmannwetter.com tweets further:

The polar vortex is doing very well.

But because hardly anyone will verify this, because no one knows what it is and what it should look like, @derspiegel throws
throws the principles of editorial control overboard and writes rubbish.”

But don’t expect the media to concede they’ve been duped any time soon. It’s like one famous scientist once said: “Science progresses one funeral at a time.”

It’s going to take awhile longer.

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