It seems that next week will be a defining week
Despite Kherson Defeat US Presses for More Offensives, Considers $50Bn Aid; US/EU to Silence Critics
Russia prepares for next phase. Putin orders creation of special coordination council
Carnage in Kherson: The Russians crushed furious Ukrainian attacks – Commanders arrested & dozens dead – NATO equipment “Scraped”
Long-hour battle of the Russian artillery
Kherson has turned into a graveyard of NATO equipment with the Ukrainian forces counting over 320 dead and dozens of tanks and armored vehicles destroyed.
The Ukrainians have launched a series of furious counter-attacks which have so far been completely repulsed by the Russian Army.
Over the past 48 hours, Russian troops have repelled two counterattack attempts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the Davydov Brod and Sukhoi Stavok settlements in the Kherson region.
During the fighting, more than 200 Ukrainians were killed while 14 tanks, 16 armored vehicles and 7 other special vehicles were destroyed in one day.
Later, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to break through the defense of Russian troops in the direction of Novaya Kamenka – Chervony Yar in Kherson. The Ukrainians launched an attack with three Battalions, including a Tank Battalion.
The concentrated fire of Russian artillery and the actions of Russian troops killed more than 120 Ukrainian servicemen while destroying six armored fighting vehicles and 13 other vehicles.
Over 10 Ukrainian soldiers were captured along with the Company Commander of the 28th Ukrainian Brigade and the Tank Battalion Commander of the 4th Brigade.
In addition, Russian forces thwarted infiltration attempts by up to 20 sabotage and reconnaissance groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine….[ ]
DEFCON 2 in Russia: Order to Prepare Moscow Shelters – Blowing of Kakhovskaya Dam & Nuclear Explosion on the Horizon…
India, Iran and Vietnam: Leave Ukraine immediately!
Shocking news comes from Russia as shelters have been ordered to be prepared in the Russian capital, something that even goes beyond the Cold War. They have already started putting up signs and moving hospital operating rooms into bomb shelters.
The Russian leadership is preparing for the worst scenario: For the third day, the blowing up of the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station is high on the Russian media.
If this happens, there is a serious possibility of either direct or indirect nuclear disaster as the cooling system of the NPP Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant will be seriously threatened.
We remind you that yesterday, for the first time in the Russian media and on state television, information appeared about the detonation of a nuclear bomb by the Ukrainians in Nikolaev, which will lead to the involvement of the USA.
Therefore, any detonation of the dam will create chain reactions that may even lead to a nuclear strike.
Logically, shelters will also begin to be prepared in other Russian cities while the level of nuclear preparedness of the strategic deterrent forces will rise.
We are essentially talking about a DEFCON 2 situation in Russia as the Russian leadership appears to be preparing for a possible US/NATO strike even on the Russian capital.
The classification of the Defense readiness condition (DEFCON) is: 1 ) Nuclear or conventional war 2) One step before war, 3) Increased readiness of Units, 4) Vigilance and increased security measures and monitoring 5) Normal state of readiness.
Shelters are being prepared in Moscow
According to last-minute information, Moscow hospitals are equipping operating rooms in bomb shelters, said a “source from the medical sector of the Russian capital”.
Signs with the inscription “Shelter” appeared at the city’s children’s polyclinic No. 110.
Information indicates that such shelters are being prepared at Yudin Hospital, as well as City Clinical Hospital No. 31.
“There used to be offices for employees, where doctors could eat or change. Now in the basement it will be possible to hide from something unknown.
They sort out the trash that has accumulated in the basement. In addition, they provide light and communications to the shelters and carry water, lanterns and disposable tableware,” writes Russian media.
At the same time, the Ministry of Education of Russia, following the Ministry of Health, was ordered to equip bomb shelters in institutions under it.
It is no coincidence that in the last 24 hours, Iran’s foreign ministry advised its citizens to refrain from traveling to Ukraine and asked Iranians there to leave the country immediately
India and Vietnam followed by asking their citizens to leave Ukraine.
Blowing up the Kakhovskaya dam: Scenarios for the evolution of the disaster
Russian media are talking about the imminent destruction of the Kakhovskaya dam. They specifically mention:
“The Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station is one of the glorious projects of the great communist construction projects of the Soviet Union. The town of Novaya Kakhovka was created only for the service of the hydroelectric power station staff and family members.
The hydroelectric complex was put into operation simultaneously with the completion of the installation of the sixth hydroelectric unit of the station in 1956. It is a typical lowland hydroelectric station, the lowest of the cascade of the Dnieper dams. The total length of the dam is over 3.8 kilometers and it holds the Kakhovka reservoir with a volume of 18.2 cubic kilometers. This is the largest reservoir on the Dnieper and at the same time the main source of water for the entire south.
Only a 16.5 meter dam, which Ukrainian nationalists are threatening to blow up, prevents the giant mass of water from escaping. The act of terrorism serves many Ukrainian goals at the same time.
The first objective is the physical destruction of the civilian population that wanted to come under Russian control. The territory downstream of the Dnieper is now part of Russian territory.
The second reason is the destruction of the waterways in the Kherson region. They are used both to supply the group of Russian troops on the left bank of the Dnieper, and as a humanitarian corridor between the regions of Kherson.
How the Ukrainians will strike
The first information about the preparation by Kyiv of a massive missile attack on the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station appeared on October 18. According to the commander of the Russian troops in the zone of the special military operation, General Sergei Surovikin, “these actions can lead to the destruction of the infrastructure of a large industrial center and heavy civilian casualties” .
We can say that a hydroelectric power station is a good target for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukrainian rockets and shells have been destroying rail and road bridges at the dam since the summer.
The target is within range of both artillery and HIMARS guided missiles. Of course, the destruction of a powerful hydraulic structure will not be achieved immediately. The Ukrainians do not have concrete-piercing ammunition. GMLRS missiles are more focused on destroying manpower and light equipment.
But methodical and deliberate blows to the body of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station can cause a significant crack in the dam. Of course, the Ukrainians can use not only guided missiles, but the “smart” 152 mm Excalibur missile.
According to estimates, the concentration of fire with the means available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine can cause the barrier to be breached as early as the second or third day depending on the reaction of local air defenses. And here everything will depend on the level at which the Kakhovka reservoir is now.
How can the Ukrainian terrorist attack be prevented?
According to the Deputy Governor of the Kherson region, Volodymyr Saldo, the intensive discharge of water through the dam has been organized and the population is moving away from the left bank of the Dnieper.
At the same time, the discharge of water from the Kakhovka Reservoir can be increased through the North Crimean Canal, which is located upstream.
The Consequences – Massive humanitarian disaster
Modeling the consequences of the hydroelectric dam disaster shows Apocalypse images for the Kherson area. In the worst case scenario, the nationalists manage to destroy the dam.
To do this, they use both the aforementioned guided missiles and river mines, which have already been introduced near the settlement of Gavrilovka. Don’t rule out sabotage. And although the average depth of the Kakhovka reservoir is not so great – only eight meters, it is enough to reach the upstream of the dam.
Did anyone believe that in the fall of 2022, gas pipelines at the bottom of the Baltic Sea and a truck full of explosives would blow up on the Crimean bridge?
In any case, the situation will become catastrophic when one of the sections of the dam is completely destroyed. Kilometers of water accumulated in the reservoir will equalize the level before and after the hydroelectric plant in just a few days.
The wave will sweep away the regional center of Golaya Pristan, as well as several small settlements. On the left bank of the Kherson, the water will rise by 2 – 2.5 meters – things will not lead to absolute chaos, but a sanitary disaster is guaranteed.
Local authorities will either have to evacuate up to fifty thousand of the local population, or fight contamination and other flooding for months. Not to mention the difficulties of the approaching winter.
The most rapid and devastating consequences await the residents of the areas downstream of HPP Kakhovskaya. The rapid flow of water will expose the water intakes of most settlements on the coast. First of all, Energodar. Emergency services will not be able to quickly deal with the consequences of the disaster in conditions of hostilities, this will take months.
If, downstream of the Dnieper, the water finally recedes, allowing hope for stabilization of the sanitary situation, then at the top of the hydroelectric power station we will have to forget about the previous level of the reservoir for years. Even if the dam is repaired immediately.
In addition to hygiene problems, there are also serious technical risks. Thus, the cooling system of the Zaporizhzhya NPP is fed by the waters of the reservoir. Here the need is so great that no direct drilling well can solve the problem.
In addition, the drilling should be deeper than usual, with the loss of water the groundwater level will decrease.
It is needless to comment on what could happen if there is an overheating of the reactor cores of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. We only note that the dispersion of several tens of tons of uranium fuel as a result of an accident is much more serious than the consequences of a nuclear strike. Of course, without considering the destruction from the shock wave.
The North Crimean Canal, unblocked by Russian troops, is fed by the Kakhovka Reservoir. Through this the peninsula receives water. A drop in water levels of 5-8 meters is guaranteed to leave many millions of people without fresh water.
Don’t forget the delayed effects of dehydrating the area. The southern part of Ukraine is highly dependent on irrigation from the waters of the Kakhovka Reservoir. Here lives the agriculture of an essentially arid region. The 130 km long Kakhovka Canal is the key to the irrigation system in the south of the Kherson region. The negative effect of its drainage will be felt by hundreds of thousands of people next autumn, when the harvest will fail.
See pictures of shelter signs in Moscow