News from the Ukraine war – 7 March, 2022

News from the Ukraine war – 7 March, 2022

US Colonel: “Ukraine is over – 40,000 troops are surrounded” (video)

“The Russians will destroy them if they do not surrender”

The American colonel, Douglas McGregor, gives his own opinion on everything that is happening in Ukraine, after 11 days of Russian invasion, on an American network.

Speaking to Fox News, Douglas McGregor said that “Vladimir Putin is carrying out something he has been warning us for at least the last 15 years, that he will not tolerate US forces or their missiles on his border.”

“Just like us, we did not tolerate Russian troops and missiles in Cuba. And we ignored him! And he reacted in the end. Under no circumstances would Ukraine be allowed to join NATO. What is happening now is that the battle in Ukraine is almost over.

All the Ukrainian troops over there have been largely surrounded and cut off. “You have a concentration of 30,000-40,000 Ukrainian soldiers in the southeast and if they do not surrender within the next 24 hours, I guess the Russians will eventually destroy them.”

“That’s why Zelensky is meeting with Putin’s representatives. Game is over. And he should negotiate the best deal he can reach and we have told him, the US president has told him, that if he chooses neutrality for Ukraine, we will support him. And I believe that Vladimir Putin will do that for Western Ukraine. This will be Ukraine across the Dnieper River.

But behind him in the East where he is I am not sure what he has planned for there. If he will form another democracy and annex it to Russia because it has historically been Russia. However, the region of Western Ukraine is not. “He knows this and it is fine to live with it as a neutral state,” he explained.

Watch video

“We are trying to demonize Putin and Russia”

“He is not interested in crossing the Dnieper and heading west to the Polish border. I believe you will also find out from the negotiations that he is willing to conquer this neutral area according to the Austrian or Finnish model. “At the moment, Russia is already leaning on Estonia and part of Latvia, and Belarus is, of course, leaning on Lithuania,” he said.

“He is not interested in going to war with us and has an army that is too small for this purpose. And he knows it. Its economy is smaller than that of South Korea. So, he does not seek such a thing. We blame him for things he does not want to do in our usual attempt to demonize him and his country. “We must remember that Ukraine is the 4th worst country out of 158 countries in the world in terms of corruption,” he added.

“Russia may be 3 or 4 places above them. This (Ukraine) is not liberal democracy, the shining example that everyone gives. It is very far from that.

Mr Zelensky has jailed journalists and his opposition. I do not think we should get involved. The American people believe that we should not get involved. Europeans believe that we should not get involved. “And we must stop sending weapons and encourage the Ukrainians to die in a desperate effort,” he said.

“I see no reason to fight the Russians”

“I do not see any reason why we should fight the Russians for something they have been talking about for years and we just chose to ignore it. And the most important thing is that the population there is identical to theirs (they are Russians). “That’s so annoying.”

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Thriller: Spetsnaz Russians locate Zelensky’s hideout – Israel: “Putin knows where he is”

The US is planning an exiled Ukrainian government

Russian special forces have located the hideout of Ukrainian President V. Zelensky, Israeli sources say.

The Israelis appear confident that the Russians know exactly where the president of Ukraine is. Their certainty stems from the recent meeting between Putin and Israeli President N. Bennett.

We remind you that Israeli President Bennett traveled secretly to Moscow and had a conversation lasting more than 2.5 hours with Putin.

There it seems that the Russians revealed to him in detail exactly what V. Zelensky is hiding.

Israeli media emphasize that “In Jerusalem, there is an understanding that Russian President Putin has avoided directly harming Ukrainian President V. Zelensky.

“This is despite the fact that messages have been sent to Israel that the Russians know exactly where it is.”

Russia probably wants V. Zelensky to capitulate and not to create the conditions for a long-term guerrilla war. Zelensky’s assassination would certainly not serve Moscow as a hero on the one hand, and a replacement on the other, and the EU would continue to recognize his government.

Of course, nothing is ruled out for the fate of Zelensky himself and his country as long as he does not capitulate.

They are planning an exiled Zelenski government

US and European officials are discussing ways in which the West could support an exiled government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky if he is forced to leave Kyiv.

According to Western diplomats, the talks ranged from Zelensky and top Ukrainian officials to a possible move to Lviv in western Ukraine, until Zelensky and his aides were forced to leave Ukraine altogether and new government in Poland.

The same sources make it clear, however, that the discussions are only at a preliminary stage and no decision has been taken.

At the same time, they explained that Western officials remained reluctant to talk directly with Zelensky about an exiled government, as he wants to stay in Kyiv, and so far has rejected talks focusing on anything other than strengthening Ukraine in its fight against of Russia.

According to the same sources, there have been discussions about sending one or more members of Zelensky’s government to an external location, where a government could be formed in case Kiev falls and Zelensky does not want or can not leave.

“The Ukrainians have plans, which I will not talk about or go into detail, to ensure that there is continuity of government in one way or another, and I will leave it there,” said US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. in an interview with CBS on Sunday.

What will happen if Zelensky is killed or arrested? 

According to the New York Times, the United States and the West are worried about what will happen if Zelensky is killed or arrested during the Russian invasion.

The concerns of the USA and the West, as reported by the New York Times in their report, start from the intention for Ukraine to remain an independent country even if Russia finds a way to impose a puppet government. Having a recognized independent leader will prevent those backed by Moscow from gaining legitimacy.

This issue has “ignited fires”, according to officials, because the Ukrainian Constitution has certain uncertainties and because Zelensky refuses to leave his country.

There are, however, some practical and legal issues.

European Union and NATO countries have made public their military and financial donations as a way to show their support for Ukraine.

European countries have sent automatic weapons, anti-aircraft missiles, anti-tank weapons and defense equipment to show that they intend to support Ukraine militarily against the Russian invasion.

Continuing public support moves will be much easier with a functioning government that will accept aid even if it is in western Ukraine or in a neighboring country such as Poland or Romania.

Over the past week, the NYT reports, intense consultations have taken place in the White House and in closed meetings, which focus on how assistance can be provided to Ukraine in case Russia occupies Kyiv. In such a case, the government of Joe Biden intends to continue to supply open weapons to Ukrainian forces.

U.S. officials have been urging Ukrainians not to allow senior executives to stay in the area for long periods of time and have also advised them to protect themselves in safer areas outside Kyiv, a source familiar with the matter said.

The United States and its allies would like the Ukrainian government to set up a headquarters in another area, ready in case the capital falls, and there is a proposal to retreat to the Carpathian Mountains, where there is a presidential resort. Ukrainian officials, however, point out that the house does not have the necessary defense standards.

Who can succeed Zelensky?

According to the Ukrainian constitution, the representative or the speaker of the Parliament can succeed Zelensky in the presidency. This position is currently held by Ruslan Stefanciuk, a Western supporter and former close associate of Zelensky.

Last Monday, Stephanyuk was the one who signed with the president the request for Ukraine’s accession to the EU, while on Friday he participated in a teleconference with the president of the European Parliament.

Western officials say Stephanyuk and others are high on the list and are determined to continue fighting the Russian invasion.

For their part, Ukrainian officials are reluctant to move Stephanyuk, but tell their allies they understand the need to secure the next day.

Apart from the Speaker of Parliament, the order of succession is not entirely clear. When, for example, both Zelensky and Stephanyuk conceived of a coronavirus in 2020, Ukrainian lawmakers noted that Prime Minister Dennis Smihal should be the third in line.

The Ukrainian Constitution provides for the positions of two deputies for the Speaker of the Parliament, but does not explain whether they also enter the succession of the President of the country.

Major military and political developments and major risks next (UPDATED!)

First, the biggest news of the day: the city of Izium fell to the Russian forces.  Here is a map with Izium (Изюм) on the top and then two sets of arrows: the red ones show how the operational cauldron in the east of the Ukraine can be locked along the Lozovaia-Pavlograd while the black one shows the same option, but much closer to the surrounded Ukronazi forces along an Izium-Pokrovsk axis.

Which of the two happens first does not matter because the outcome is the same: Izium was the linchpin of the entire Ukie disposition and the last city to create not just a free fire zone in the slowly shrinking bottleneck for the Ukies to escape, but also the city which was defended by the best Ukrainian forces (the 81st UAF brigade).

Boris Rozhin (from whom I took the 2nd map) had this to say about what this means:

In the evening, reports came that our forces kicked the AFU out of Izyum (although there are reports that there is still some resistance in the southern districts of the city), where a part of the 81st brigade of the AFU defended in the city, which retreated from the city and is now covering it with artillery and mortars. The positions of the AFU were actively covered by aviation. Izyum is of decisive importance for the entire northern part of the AFU grouping in the Donbas.  The highway has been cut (now with ends) Kharkiv-Izyum. Control over Izyum creates prerequisites for an offensive towards Slavyansk from the northwest.  In addition, controlling Izyum, there are opportunities to attack Pavlograd and Barvenkovo, with further cutting of the Donetsk-Pavlograd highway, control over which will lead to a full operational encirclement of all AFU forces in the Donbas.

I full concur with this analysis.  For all practical purposes that cauldron was about 80% closed “by fire” for a few days already, this time it will be closed by Russian/LDNR forces meeting each other somewhere in that big no mans land between Pavlograd and Donetsk.

There is also major combat actions happening along the south front, again, I will begin with a map:

The black line is the shape of the cauldron which the Russians apparently intend to lock around the Odessa region.  I did not color the entire Ukie coastline in black, because I assume that it is currently under fire from the Russian Aerospace forces and the Black Sea Fleet.  According to at least one video I saw yesterday, it looks like the Black Sea Fleet’s Large Amphibious Assault ships are now within visual range of Odessa.  At the end of that envelopment Russia will have full control of the entire coastline from Dniester еstuary (or even from the Romanian border) to the Russian region of Rostov-on-the-Don!

A Mini Banderastan next?

Banderastan will now become a landlocked “country”!

This western region is where all the western weapons and the international Nazi brigades are being concentrated right now.  Some estimates say that the force levels defending this territory might be as high as 100’000 soldiers.    Keep in mind that the highway between Kiev and Zhitomir has been cut off by Russian forces and that except for small roads Kiev is slowly being encircled.

Whether Russia will bother with this region or not will largely depend on the West.

Right now the West has declared total informational and economic war on Russia.  Furthermore, the USA has a long experience in creating “special pockets” from which to attack a country.

Finally, I would not exclude a NATO movement into the western Ukraine to “protect” the “innocent civilians” and “refugees fleeing the Russian massacres” being “murdered en masse” by the “indiscriminate bombing” by “Putin’s hordes”.

The rather pathetic zig-zags about “yes we will deliver fighters to the Ukraine” and “no we won’t deliver fighters to the Ukraine” seems to suggest that there are still a few folks left at Mons and the Pentagon who understand the risks of such a trick.  They also must realize the futility of the entire concept (militarily speaking, this entire plan is absolutely ridiculous, do you need me to explain why?).

God willing, Lavrov will be able to get Kuleba to see the situation as it is and that Kuleba will be smart enough to understand that if these negotiations fail, there will be more negotiations in the future, only in even worse circumstances for the Ukies than today’s.

Next, political news.  The Russians have now officially declared all the following countries as “hostile”:

  • All EU member States,
  • The USA
  • Australia
  • Albania
  • Andorra
  • Czech Republic
  • Great Britain (including Jersey, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands and Gibraltar)
  • Iceland
  • Canada
  • Liechtenstein
  • Micronesia
  • Monaco
  • New Zealand
  • Norway
  • Republic of Korea
  • San Marino
  • North Macedonia
  • Singapore
  • Taiwan
  • Ukraine
  • Montenegro
  • Switzerland
  • Japan

What does this mean?

At the time of writing (14:00 EST) all the Russians are saying is that there will be “financial and diplomatic consequences”.  If you find out more details, please post them in the comments section!

I expect both diplomatic and economic sanctions to be announced in the coming days.  And they will hurt like hell.

Next.

According to Maria Zakharova, Sergei Lavrov will meet his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmitrii Kuleba, in Turkey under the auspices of the Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu.  According to the Turks, the topics will include “a ceasefire and a political solution”.  This will happen “in the near future”.  This was agreed between President Putin and President Erdogan, at the request of the latter.  This will happen during the Antalya Diplomatic Forum.

While I was writing this I got the info that a Polish helicopter brought an Ukronazi delegation for talks in Belarus.  According to the latest from Russian negotiators, it was yet another wasted day.  But these negotiations will resume as soon as the Ukies get their latest orders from UncleShmuel.

The obvious problem is that the Ukie delegation has no authority, so all they do is show up, make some general statements of good will, then take all the (written) Russian proposals and say they need to retire for “consultations”.  Obviously, these consultations are not with anybody in Kiev, but with the US and its EU colonies and the latter must at all costs get as many people dead (on both sides) as possible.

And yet, in spite of that, and while I don’t have much hope about any such talks, I will always welcome them: many thousands of lives could be saved if the Ukies capitulate.  So even if the possibility to achieve anything is tiny, it is worth trying, even if just a few lives are saved.

However, in the mean time, there are numerous reports from many towns and cities under Nazi occupation of the local municipal authorities warning that anybody using a humanitarian corridor leading to the “occupier force” will be shot on sight and with no warning.  There are many confirmed instances of such fleeing refugees being executed by the Ukronazis.  The western presstitutes are blaming it all on Russia, what else is new?

Conclusions:

From the point of view of Russian combat operations, today has been most successful and tomorrow promises an even quicker domino effect on the Ukrainian defenses pretty much everywhere except the far west (what I now call the mini-Banderastan).

Politically, the only important news is that Lavrov and Kuleba are supposed to meet soon.

And yet, I will end with an area of great concern to me.

Here is how I see it and PLEASE tell me I am wrong!

  • The Ukraine has lost the war, she will be disarmed and denazified
  • The West is waging total informational and economic war against Russia and believing much of its own propaganda (which is fantastically dangerous!)
  • The western public has been sold nonsense about the Ukies being at the gates of Moscow and Russia being ready to surrender.  Which means that when the reality will become undeniable there will be A LOT of VERY butthurt folks out there pointing fingers.
  • Economically speaking, Zerohedge put it best: “Carnage everywhere“!
  • Even much worse will be the folks who will try to still overturn this outcome.  I am talking about the true nutcases in NATO (and in some sections of the USA ruling elites) which simply cannot even *imagine* that Russia holds all the cards, including the military one.
  • I can easily imagine, say, a Polish column with weapons and mercenaries crossing into the Ukraine and being wiped out by Russian missiles.  I ask you this: what will NATO do next?

In fact, let me rephrase my question this way: is it at all possible that this war can end without a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia, keeping in mind that NATO cannot win and NATO cannot accept defeat?

Sadly, I don’t think so anymore, that kind of folly is a direct consequence of the Western PSYOPs which have convinced the folks in the West of two crucial things: 1) Russia cannot win and 2) Putin is bluffing.

I think that the folks in the Pentagon are smart enough to know that this is all bull, but the Eurorodents inside NATO and the EU?

Wouldn’t a military/political defeat of NATO in Banderastan not risk bringing down NATO as an organization?

Again, please tell me that I am wrong, but I don’t see how this war can stop before Russia shows NATO that nobody in Russia is bluffing and that any NATO country dumb enough to test that will be the target of missile strikes.

So, militarily, this war is pretty much over.

The future of a min-Banderastan is impossible for me to guess.

But I am seriously concerned that this war might expand and directly involve NATO/EU countries.

And it might involve nuclear strikes by either/both sides.

So, please tell me I am wrong and that the West does still have enough brains to step back from this abyss?

Does it?

Andrei

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