The West celebrates what may yet prove to be a Pyrrhic victory
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Ukrainian troops liberate Kherson as Russia withdraw forces
Gravitas: Is Russia’s retreat from Kherson a trap?
End of Kherson and Left of the Dnieper: The Russians abandon the Chaplinka base & withdraw to the Crimea – Report kolaf brings domino developments
Huge anger in Moscow: “Leadership nullified all our victories”
Kolafos is the report of Russian military and analysts about the movements of the Russian leadership that gave the green light to withdraw from the right bank of the Dnieper and the city of Kherson.
The Russians reveal that with the abandonment of the bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnieper, the leadership ordered the abandonment of the Chaplinka base as well, annihilating all profits from the start of the Russian operation!
According to information, the Russian Army is strengthening defensive fortifications and defense lines in northern Crimea and the adjacent part of the region with Kherson.
This is because the Ukrainians put all of Kherson within artillery range and even some areas of Crimea. So is the Crimean land corridor and fresh water supply.
What they reveal paints a picture of a Russian tragedy unless they are preparing to blow up the Kakhovskaya dam.
The shots in Moscow are now hitting B. Putin himself. This is reflected in the article by the analyst of the RIA Novosti agency Piotr Akopov, who goes so far as to parallel the criticisms leveled against Surovykin (by extension Defense Minister Shoigu, but in the final analysis also against Putin who, as president, is also commander-in-chief) with the civil war atmosphere of Russia in 1916.
Then Prime Minister Boris Stürmer was accused of secret negotiations with Germany for the signing of a peace treaty. Stürmer was forced to resign, Russia entered the war and in 1917 the October Revolution followed.
In the range of the Ukrainian artillery, the “land bridge” of Crimea!
After the retreat of the Russian troops and their transition to the left bank of the Dnieper in Kherson, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the opportunity to put the logistical support roads supplying units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation under the control of their artillery.
Serhii Kuzan, adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, emphasized in an interview with the Financial Times:
“Thus, in the event that the Armed Forces occupy the right bank of the Dnieper, the Ukrainian artillery can bombard the “land bridge” to the Crimean peninsula, i.e. the highways Kherson-Armyansk, Kherson-Melitopol and Melitopol-Dzhankoy.
According to Kuzan, “this will be a big blow to the Russian forces.”
Along with this, the ammunition depots and logistics centers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which ensure the fulfillment of the tasks of the Russian special operation in the southern direction, will be located in the zone of destruction of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Russian units will withdraw to Crimea!
According to information, the Russian Army is strengthening defensive fortifications and defense lines in northern Crimea and the adjacent part of the Kherson region.
Russian sources say that the main units of the Russian army in the southern direction may withdraw to the mentioned area.
In this case, we are talking about the transfer of units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation from the Chaplinka base in the Kherson region, located about 30 kilometers from Crimea.
Such a rearrangement is a forced measure and is directly related to the abandonment of the Right Bank in the Chersona region.
The Russians will be forced into this move as the Ukrainians from the higher bank of the Dnieper will be able to bomb Russian targets with M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS 227mm.
At the same time, Chaplinka will become the first target to be hit by American artillery.
On February 24, Russian troops took control of the Chaplinka base. The Russians turned the abandoned local airport into a full military base. From there, Ka-52 “Alligator” attack helicopters were regularly deployed on missions to support Russian Forces units in the Zaporizhia, Kherson and Nikolaev regions.
This means that the main units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the south can be withdrawn as far as Crimea.
Now a significant part of the Russian equipment has left Chaplinka but a small number of helicopters are still located there to provide cover for the Russian units being transported from the Right Bank. There is no doubt that later they will leave this place as well.
Abandoning the Chaplinka base will have a negative impact on the quality and effectiveness of air support for Russian troops in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.
Moreover, Chaplinka will not be the only such abandoned military base. This is explained by the 90 km range of the American GMLRS missiles…
Crimea’s land corridor and water supply at risk
Russian media continue to take shots at the Russian military and political leadership. They specifically mention:
“In fact, what is happening simply does not fit in our heads, if we judge it from the point of view of the national interests of Russia. The main problem, which everyone involved had been trumpeting literally from the first days of the special operation, was the severe lack of forces allocated to it by the Commander-in-Chief. Both offense and defense required numerous, well-armed, trained and motivated infantry.
We saw in the Kharkiv region what happened after the counterattack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, when the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were forced to hastily abandon their positions to avoid being encircled. Shortly thereafter, Liman surrendered.
Everyone feared the repetition of the Kupyansk-Izyum-Limansky scenario on the Southern Front, where the situation was a little better. However, on September 21, President Putin announced the start of a partial mobilization in the country and the situation gradually began to improve.
On October 28, Defense Minister Shoigu reported to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief that the plan to mobilize 300,000 reservists had been completed, of which 82,000 had already been sent to the zone of operations. The number of the Russian group in Kherson was estimated at 20,000 soldiers.
Everyone expected that already in November-December where several hundred thousand additional reserves would arrive at the front and then it would be possible to launch our counterattack. Our priority directions were Krivorozhsko-Nikolaev and Odessa, which would give Russia a strategic victory over the Kiev regime. A key condition was the preservation of the bridgehead on the right bank by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
However, everything changed. Instead of a counterattack and the implementation of a conventional defense like Stalingrad, supported by left bank artillery and airstrikes, Russian troops were ordered to evacuate from the right bank, surrendering them to the enemy without a fight. What did he give us?
First, due to the threat of flooding of the low left bank as a result of the Ukrainians’ undermining of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were moved to positions prepared in advance. I wonder what we will do if the Ukrainians don’t blow up the dam, but just start pouring water out of it quickly, flooding our side first?
Second , Crimea’s reliable water supply will now be called into question. The Russian authorities could not solve this problem completely for 8 years by peaceful means and this could only be done by military means. Yes, the main structures of the North Crimean Canal, through which the peninsula receives fresh water from the Dnieper, are located in Tavrisk, on the left bank. However, the entry of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Dnieper will allow them to carry out continuous rocket and artillery bombardment of the Russian sea transport infrastructure, eventually rendering it useless, as happened earlier with the Antonovsky Bridge and the crossing over the Hydroelectric Dam Kakhovskaya.
Third , the Kherson-Armyansk, Kherson-Melitopol and Melitopol-Dzhankoy highways are under enemy fire control. That is, this is the same “land corridor” to Crimea, the control of which was considered the second indisputable victory of Russia during the special operation after the resumption of fresh water supply to Crimea. From the higher right bank of the Dnieper, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to shell the roads leading to the peninsula, disrupting its supply, as well as Crimea itself, its northern part.
If Washington provides Kyiv with missiles with a range of 300 kilometers, then from Kherson, which was abandoned by Russian troops, the Ukrainians will be able to freely cover the main naval base of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation in Sevastopol.
In other words, the positive results for Crimea from the special operation, nine months after its launch, are in danger of being nullified.
If the Armed Forces of Ukraine, released from Kherson, are able to ensure a successful offensive towards Berdyansk, this “land corridor” will be completely cut off and the peninsula will turn into an “island” besieged by the enemy. The safety of the Crimean bridge in such conditions is of great concern. Ukrainian saboteurs have already proven once that they can beat her.
The Ukrainians strengthen their forces in Svatovo and Kremennaya because of Kherson!
Ukrainian troops began to be reinforced in the regions of Kharkiv, Kremennaya and Svatovo.
In the context of the withdrawal of Russian troops on the left bank of the Dnieper, it became known that part of the Ukrainian Kherson group, and we can talk about 5-7 thousand military personnel, suddenly began to move in a northern direction.
According to some sources, large forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are currently being sent to the Kharkiv region to reinforce the existing group of troops in the Kremennaya and Svatovo regions, which indicates that the Ukrainians are preparing a general offensive in this direction.
It is known that Ukrainian troops have already made several unsuccessful attempts to capture the settlements of Svatovo and Kremennaya. Now the Ukrainian troops can be reinforced at the expense of the liberated reserves in the Kherson region.
See the maps: Ukrainians hit Kherson, Crimea and the Chaplinka base
“Ukraine will not survive the winter, it will be exhausted”
In one of the most decisive developments on the battlefield in the nine months of the war, Ukrainian troops entered Kherson following the Russian withdrawal.
The Central Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (GUR) issued a statement early this afternoon, Friday, November 11, in which it states that the strategically important southern city, which has been under Russian occupation since March, is returning to Ukrainian control, and calls the remaining Russian soldiers to surrender, although as you read in EL, they have all left without a fight!
According to Pravda, Russia’s new plan for the future is as follows: “Ukraine will not survive the winter, it will be exhausted.”
As the Russian newspaper reports:
“Kyiv is running out of resources and money. Western aid is not going to last forever. The maneuver of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (as the Russians call the withdrawal) to take advantageous positions along the Dnieper River changes the special operation aimed at exhausting Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Economy Minister Yulia Svirydenko went to Washington for negotiations. He said on Wednesday that continued blackouts due to Russian bombing could lead to a bigger contraction in GDP in 2022 than previously forecast, Reuters reports.
According to Sviridenko, a drop of 39% is expected instead of 35%.
“The problem is that the companies don’t work. If power outages continue in the coming weeks, GDP could fall even further,” he said.
According to Ukraine’s Economy Ministry, production volume in October fell 39%, after contracting 35% from August to September, Reuters reported.
Sviridenko assured that the Ukrainian government is cutting costs by cutting civil servants and privatizing small state-owned enterprises. Kiev will still need foreign aid, he added.
Sviridenko also tried to negotiate in the United States for supplies of electrical equipment such as transformers, power generators and even LED light bulbs that could save electricity. US officials have urged the Ukrainian government to implement reforms to establish transparent financial rules.
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Kyiv needs $38 billion to cover an expected budget deficit next year and another $17 billion to start urgent infrastructure repairs.
The West is tired of funding Ukraine non-stop
It seems that the West is reluctant to finance Ukraine. The EU pledged to provide $9 billion in loans in 2022, but three billion will never be sent. The European Central Bank will shut down the printing press in the spring.
Hungary has refused to finance the 18 billion aid package for 2023. There will only be loans from the EU budget. The IMF promises an injection of 10 billion dollars over the next two years. These are also loans.
The United States mainly supports Ukraine with arms supplies. In September, almost all Republicans in the House of Representatives voted against a bill to allocate $12 billion to the Ukrainian budget. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has warned that Republicans will refuse to give Ukraine carte blanche if they take control of the House.
Kyiv will have no money for war
Underfunding the Ukrainian economy will cause hyperinflation in Ukraine. Ukraine’s national bank issued an additional 15 billion hryvnias in early September by buying government bonds, undermining the value of the hryvnia. Since the beginning of the special operation, the bank issued 300 billion, which caused the exchange rate to increase to almost 50 hryvnias per dollar.
In September, inflation in Ukraine rose to almost 25%. Given the high costs, it will be even more difficult for Kyiv to stand on its own two feet, let alone on the war front.
Russia has decided to withdraw its troops from Kherson. Ukraine will now have to keep the city, which automatically increases the cost of the country’s budget.
It is worth noting that Ukraine’s public debt currently stands at UAH 6,406 billion (of which 78.7 percent is external debt), while Ukraine’s public debt to GDP is 100.1 percent. Debt servicing is also becoming more expensive due to the rising dollar.
Kyiv has no chance of obtaining the frozen Russian assets because Russia has frozen an almost equivalent amount of Western assets.
In addition, support for Ukrainian refugees is declining across the EU. It is possible that many may eventually decide to return home. This will create additional pressure on the labor market, unemployment will increase.
The new phase of the special operation: The exhaustion of Ukraine
The maneuver of the Russian Armed Forces to take advantageous positions along the Dnieper leads the confrontation with Ukraine to a new phase. Russia wants the exhaustion of Ukraine.
Winter is near. Russia has more than enough resources to see it through the winter.
Ukraine has no resources. Ukraine only has help from the West, but even that won’t last forever.