“Intercepted communications from the Ukrainian command reveal their aim to build a layered defense from Poltava through Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhia, Krivoy Rog, and Nikolaev – which happens to be a shield for the already fortified Odessa. None of that guarantees success against the incoming Russian onslaught.
It’s always important to remember that Operation Z started on February 24 with around 150,000 or so fighters – and definitely not Russia’s elite forces. And yet they liberated Mariupol and destroyed the elite neo-Nazi Azov battalion in a matter of only fifty days, cleaning up a city of 400,000 people with minimal casualties.
While fighting a real war on the ground – not those indiscriminate US bombings from the air – in a huge country against a large army, facing multiple technical, financial and logistical challenges, the Russians also managed to liberate Kherson, Zaporizhia and virtually the whole area of the ‘baby twins,’ the popular republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Russia’s ground forces commander, General Aleksandr Dvornikov, has turbo-charged missile, artillery and air strikes to a pace five times faster than during the first phase of Operation Z, while the Ukrainians, overall, are low or very low on fuel, ammo for artillery, trained specialists, drones, and radars.
What American armchair and TV generals simply cannot comprehend is that in Russia’s view of this war – which military expert Andrei Martyanov defines as a “combined arms and police operation” – the two top targets are the destruction of all military assets of the enemy while preserving the life of its own soldiers.
So while losing tanks is not a big deal for Moscow, losing lives is. And that accounts for those massive Russian bombings; each military target must be conclusively destroyed. Precision strikes are crucial.
There is a raging debate among Russian military experts on why the Ministry of Defense does not go for a fast strategic victory. They could have reduced Ukraine to rubble – American style – in no time. That’s not going to happen. The Russians prefer to advance slowly and surely, in a sort of steamroller pattern. They only advance after sappers have fully surveilled the terrain; after all there are mines everywhere.
The overall pattern is unmistakable, whatever the NATO spin barrage. Ukrainian losses are becoming exponential – as many as 1,500 killed or wounded each day, everyday. If there are 50,000 Ukrainians in the several Donbass cauldrons, they will be gone by the end of June.
Ukraine must have lost as many as 20,000 soldiers in and around Mariupol alone. That’s a massive military defeat, largely surpassing Debaltsevo in 2015 and previously Ilovaisk in 2014. The losses near Izyum may be even higher than in Mariupol. And now come the losses in the Severodonetsk corner.
We’re talking here about the best Ukrainian forces. It doesn’t even matter that only 70 percent of Western weapons sent by NATO ever make it to the battlefield: the major problem is that the best soldiers are going…going…gone, and won’t be replaced. Azov neo-Nazis, the 24th Brigade, the 36th Brigade, various Air Assault brigades – they all suffered losses of 60+ percent or have been completely demolished.
So the key question, as several Russian military experts have stressed, is not when Kiev will ‘lose’ as a point of no return; it is how many soldiers Moscow is prepared to lose to get to this point.
The entire Ukrainian defense is based on artillery. So the key battles ahead involve long-range artillery. There will be problems, because the US is about to deliver M270 MLRS systems with precision-guided ammunition, capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 70 kilometers or more.
Russia, though, has a counterpunch: the Hermes Small Operational-Tactical Complex, using high precision munitions, possibility of laser guidance, and a range of more than 100 kilometers. And they can work in conjunction with the already mass-produced Pantsir air defense systems….
…the imminent loss of Severodonetsk and Lysichansk will ring serious alarm bells in Washington and Brussels, because that will represent the beginning of the end of the current regime in Kiev. And that, for all practical purposes – and beyond all the lofty rhetoric of ‘the west stands with you’ – means heavy players won’t be exactly encouraged to bet on a sinking ship…
…Zelensky will be fine. He’s protected by British and American special forces. The family is reportedly living in an $8 million mansion in Israel. He owns a $34 million villa in Miami Beach, and another in Tuscany. Average Ukrainians were lied to, robbed, and in many cases, murdered, by the Kiev gang he presides over – oligarchs, security service (SBU) fanatics, neo-Nazis. And those Ukrainians that remain (10 million have already fled) will continue to be treated as expendable.”
Put simply, Ukraine is losing the war. They are losing fast. They are losing big.
Short of direct NATO intervention, there is no hope at all for Ukraine to prevail militarily.
The ongoing Special Military Operation by Russia into Ukraine, is accurately described as “war.” We’ve all seen the images and the videos, but few have ever caught the actual moments of bravery by BOTH sides. The 4m20s video below shows it for all to see. Russian soldiers entering a Ukrainian army TRENCH. The bravery by both sides is stunning. The killing is up-close and real. This is the reality of actual war.
The video begins with an aerial drone view of a trench, which – for the purposes of this description – I will refer to as a north-south trench line. Russian soldiers enter from the south. Ukrainians are along the way toward the north.
As the Russian move slowly northward, Ukrainians begin to move southward. Think about the actual bravery it takes for men on BOTH sides to do what you will see being done. The bravery of knowing there are armed men facing you in that very trench, and either you kill them, or they will kill you . . . . and yet soldiers from BOTH sides proceed along anyway. THAT, ladies and gentlemen, is effin bravery.
As the Russians move northward and the Ukrainians move southward, they cannot see each other for a bit. Once they get within eye sight, oh dear God how brutal it gets.
The first two soldiers catch a glimpse of each other and shots get fired. The Ukrainian retreats northward, to no avail. Fractions of a second later, he goes down. Shot. Dead.
Other Ukrainians, in side trenches off the main trench, then one-by-one, engage the advancing Russians. Machine gun fire hits the sides of the trench. Grenades get hurled, but most miss.
The battle goes on.
At one point, a grenade lands within arms reach of a Ukrainian; he grabs it and throw it OUT of the trench just in time to save his own life. Then another.
Then . . . the grenades hit their mark. The Ukrainians are killed.
It only last four minutes and twenty seconds. But the sheer bravery of men on BOTH sides is amazing. While I support RUSSIA, I have an amazing respect for men on BOTH sides. True bravery exists on BOTH sides. They know death is coming for them, yet they proceed nonetheless. And some of them die nonetheless.
This is actual war. Horrifying in its violence, while showing the bravery that mere mortal men, actually have inside.