US-France faced by geopolitical disaster
This is being painted as a question of “democracy”
“We must stand firm on democracy. Without democracy, there is no governance, there is no freedom, there is no rule of law. We will not allow coup after coup in West Africa.”
Faced with a US-France geopolitical disaster: Arrivals of Wagner forces in Niger – E. Macron’s anger with DSGE: “The Russians will take all our bases”
“NO” from Nigeria’s embattled Senate
Wagner’s mission of military advisers, forces and trainers to Niger has begun as WarNews247 had informed days ago and the landscape is beginning to change:
The Nigerian Senate has denied the country’s President the right to use the Nigerian Armed Forces to conduct a military operation in Niger.
Chad, Ghana and other countries are beginning to retreat and now the pressure is on for the West and especially the USA and France. If Nigeria eventually does not get involved, who will lead the ECOWAS forces?
France would have to send troops which would bring her into direct confrontation with Wagner.
The Russian TV network RT is circulating with the headline “Nigerian Senate Refusal to Approve Military Action” and the subtitle “Countdown to Conflict”.
“NO” from the Nigerian Senate – Will the President bypass the deadlock?
Nigerian senators have rejected President Bola Tinubu’s request to deploy Nigerian troops to Niger Republic as part of the ECOWAS force to restore the country’s democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum.
After Niger’s coup leaders refused to budge, West African defense chiefs drew up a military action plan that the country’s President, Tinubu, sent to the Senate seeking permission to commit Nigerian troops to war.
However, in the executive session on Saturday, the senators rejected the president’s request.
According to a senator who attended the meeting, the senators agreed to pass a resolution condemning the coup and commend ECOWAS leaders for their efforts to restore constitutional order in Niger, but ruled out military options.
Almost all the senators spoke and completely ruled out military options because of many factors but also because of the harmonious relationship that Nigeria and Niger have always enjoyed.
“The senators urged President Tinubu to intensify negotiations with the coup plotters by re-sending a delegation to Niamey.
One suggested that the likes of Obasanjo, General Ali Gusau and Abdulsalam Abubakar should be sent as special envoys to dialogue and seek a diplomatic solution.
“Senators who oppose military action have pointed out that our military is woefully underpowered and unprepared to fight any war. They said we have fragile peace in Nigeria.
The senators believe that the federal government should focus on solving the Boko Haram menace instead of thinking of going to war in a foreign country.”
E. Macron is out of his element with the DGSE
If Nigeria does not get involved militarily, France is faced with an incredible mess. It will either have to send troops together with the US or alone, or leave the country.
According to French media, E. Macron is at odds with his country’s secret services and especially with the DGSE (General Directorate of External Security).
Didn’t he see a coup coming? Why didn’t he inform E. Macron? And why were the Americans never informed?
All this resulted in Wagner racing to close the gap and France being 1.5 feet outside Africa.
According to the WSJ:
“Niger’s president repeated assurances to the worried French and Americans that the military would soon rescue him from an unfolding coup.
Around noon shortly before the coup, a former US ambassador called him to find out what was going on. The ambassador worried that one of Washington’s closest allies in Africa could be overthrown and the country fall into the hands of coup plotters sympathetic to Russia.
A dark personnel dispute within Niger’s presidential guard has now become what appears to be a geopolitical victory for Russia and the Wagner Group paramilitary firm in their bid to topple Western allies.
Officials in the US and Europe are scrambling to find ways to return Bazoum to power, but admit the window is closing.
“Russia will take all our bases”
The coup, if successful, could lead to Russia taking over some of America’s most important drone bases, used for missions in the Sahara between Libya and Nigeria. Wagner’s mercenaries have previously seized former US and French outposts in Syria and Mali.
This result was not prescribed. A week of missteps and miscommunication pushed the massive nation of Niger towards Russia.
Nigerian, American, European and other West African security officials, as well as Nigerian soldiers, described a series of unexpected blunders that now threaten to turn West Africa into a theater of regional war.
Washington, trapped without key personnel in its posts in Africa, has failed to prevent what is now the seventh coup in the region since 2020 – not including a failed attempt in Niger two years ago.
US and French intelligence officials had long been aware of the president’s plan to reshuffle his security detail and the dangers it entailed.
The presidential guard has felt marginalized after huge sums of military aid have been funneled to the country’s counter-terrorism units, two people familiar with the situation said.
France’s DGSE intelligence agency warned Paris of the danger, but neither France nor the US took significant action to defend their ally in Niamey, according to French and West African intelligence officials.
E. Macron denies that he was notified. No such information ever reached his office.
